Exploring Current trends: Declining Application Figures
The latest provisional data from the Home Office, published in September 2024, highlights significant shifts in visa application trends for work and study in the UK.
These changes are directly influenced by the amendments to the Immigration Rules, implemented in January- April 2024. The new rules, which introduced stricter requirements for both work and study visas, have led to notable reductions in application numbers across several categories.
Health and Care Worker Visas:
Since the addition of care workers to the Shortage Occupation List in February 2022, applications for the Health and Care Worker visa saw substantial growth. By August 2023, monthly applications reached a peak of 18,300, compared to just 4,100 in February 2022. However, this sharp increase has not been sustained, with applications dropping significantly to 2,100 by September 2024—a reduction of 89% from the August 2023 peak.
For the six-month period from April to September 2024, a total of 15,200 applications were submitted. This marks an 83% decline compared to the same period in 2023, when the number of applications was significantly higher. A key driver of this decrease is the policy change, effective from March 2024, which prohibited social care workers from bringing dependants on their visa. This restriction also led to a 74% drop in dependant applications, with only 30,600 applications submitted between April and September 2024, compared to the same period in 2023.
Skilled Worker Visas:
The Skilled Worker visa category has demonstrated more stability than the Health and Care Worker route. Between January 2022 and March 2024, monthly applications remained consistent at around 6,000. However, April 2024 saw a temporary spike, with applications rising to 10,100 before returning to 4,200 in September 2024—a 58% decrease over five months. Between April and September 2024, there were 37,900 applications for Skilled Worker visas, representing a modest 6% increase compared to the same period in 2023. The increase in dependants was even more notable, with 31,600 applications during this period, a 14% rise compared to the same months in the previous year.
Study Visas:
The Sponsored Study visa route has been particularly affected by the new rules, especially by the changes introduced in January 2024, which restrict international students from bringing dependants, except in specific cases.
The number of applications for Sponsored Study visas between January and September 2024 stood at 350,700—a 16% decline compared to the same period in 2023. The typical seasonal peak in applications between July and September was also impacted, with 49,000 fewer applications (a 16% decrease) compared to the same three months in 2023.
A dramatic drop was seen in applications from dependants of students, with only 17,800 submitted between January and September 2024. This marks an 85% reduction compared to the same period in 2023, following the introduction of restrictions that prevent most students from bringing family members with them.
Key Policy Changes and Their Effects
The sharp declines in application numbers across several visa categories can be directly linked to the recent changes to immigration policies. Some of the most significant changes include:
- From 1 January 2024, international students (except those enrolled in postgraduate research courses or those receiving government-funded scholarships) were no longer allowed to bring dependants.
- From 11 March 2024, social care workers arriving in the UK were also restricted from bringing dependants.
- From 4 April 2024, the salary threshold for Skilled Worker visas was raised from £26,200 to £38,700. In addition, minimum salary requirements for specific roles on the newly-renamed Immigration Salary List were also increased, making it more challenging for employers to sponsor workers in these roles.
- From 11 April 2024, the minimum income requirement for sponsoring a spouse or partner visa increased from £18,600 to £29,000.
These new requirements, especially the higher salary thresholds and restrictions on bringing dependants, have led to a considerable reduction in visa applications.
Compared to previous Home Office reports, the data for 2024 indicates a clear downward trend in visa applications across several categories. For instance, the number of Health and Care Worker visa applications between April and September 2024 is 83% lower than in the same period in 2023. Similarly, applications for dependants on the Sponsored Study visa route have decreased by 85%.
While the Skilled Worker visa category has shown a modest 6% increase in applications compared to the same six-month period in 2023, the overall trend reflects the broader impact of the stricter immigration rules introduced earlier in the year.
As the Home Office continues to release updated statistics, it will be essential to monitor whether these trends persist or if adjustments to the policy framework result in a reversal of these patterns.
